Texas economy edges higher in September, report says

Houston Business Journal

Though Texas has matched the “sideways” pattern of economic activity that has held sway nationwide in the past six months, the state’s economy is poised to surge ahead in 2011, according to an economic report.

The report was issued Thursday by Dallas-based Comerica Bank, which has 35 Houston-area branches.

The bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index rose one point in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, to a level of 92. In the six months from April through September, the index has trended sideways, fluctuating between 90 and 92. The September reading is seven points, or eight percent, above the index cycle low of 85 reached in mid-2009.

“Looking ahead, I expect the Texas economy will outperform the nation as it has done for the past five years, accelerating faster than the national economy over the balance of 2010 and into 2011,” said Dana Johnson, Comerica Bank chief economist. If that pattern emerges, our index should make an upside breakout in upcoming months.”

The Texas Economic Activity Index equally weights nine, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of economic activity in the manufacturing, travel, and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays.